Joel, Neil is not claiming that if use this formula every single article you write will go viral. He's not saying this is a "fool proof" formula. He's suggesting it is a formula that's been proven to work. If what goes viral is "generally unpredictable" as you suggest, then we wouldn't have a clue what makes something goes nuts online. But you know that 's true. Metrics have allowed us to measure successful v. poor performing posts, evaluate what worked and didn't work, tweak, launch, test, repeat. And so. Until we have a pretty certain "formula." Not airtight, but enough so we can with confidence tell our clients that if we do this this MIGHT happen. Here's proof.